Dropping Odds

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What are Dropping Odds?

The name itself is already quite explanatory about what this term means in the world of online betting. Dropping odds occur when the prices initially set on specific markets fall, either purely for flow or external reasons.

The fierce competition between bookmakers is one of the factors that influence the fluctuation of odds and which players with a nose for good profits can use to their advantage to maximise their ROI (Return on Investment). That is, if a large number of players place their bet on a certain result (Moneyway) this cash flow will affect the odds, causing them to naturally lower and the profit to be taken from this bet is less than initially projected.

Apart from the betting flow also other external factors can cause a significant drop in the initially projected odds. These factors can be an injury to a key player in the team, morale after a heavy defeat, squad management for a more important future game or even locker room or coaching staff problems. The important thing is to take advantage of the odds dropping in your favour and be quick to place your bet at the right time.

Why do Odds Drop and how can you use this to your advantage?

As with everything in the world of online gambling there are many factors to consider for a winning bet, with very different outcomes. To ensure you get the most profit for your money it is important to analyse the pre-game variables that directly affect the odds and be quicker than the bookmakers in placing your bet.

First of all, if you really want to use this tool as an ally in maximizing your ROI it is important that you are registered in several online sportsbooks, among the most popular and some smaller ones as well. If you are registering when placing your bet you probably won't be fast enough and by the time you finish the odds will have been updated. The bookmakers also change the value of Odds to correct the Vig (percentage charged by the bookmaker, also known as juice).

Monitor the factors that can cause the odds to fall and quickly find out which bookmakers have not followed the trend fast enough and the odds have not updated yet. It is in this parameter that it is important to find smaller bookmakers who may be slower to update their data due to the lack of resources of the bigger bookmakers.

Be quick to place your bet and divide your budget between several bookmakers, so you can guarantee a satisfactory return without alerting the bookmakers and avoid your account to be restricted or blocked.

For example, if the industry average odds are 2.00 for 2.5 or more goals and the odds in a particular bookmaker remain at 2.40 it is safe to assume that this will be a profitable transaction.

If you are more cautious you can always take into consideration the possibility of cash-out. Of course the gains if you let the game roll will be potentially higher but the cash-out guarantees a smaller but safe return.

Creating a strategy with Dropping Odds

Several factors affect the drop of odds in the market, so it is necessary to know how to read this drop to understand if what reflects the market is corresponding to the expected result.

As we have already seen, Moneyway is one way to check which is the favourite and most likely outcome to happen. But it is also necessary to pay attention to the so-called “heavy boats”, that is when a team has been overloaded with bets and appears to be the winner but the boat sinks and the result is exactly the opposite. We see this in cases where the most popular teams, with high chances of being the winners, end up not being so, contrary to what was projected.

When you can already make a correct reading of the factors that influence a certain result and cause fluctuations in Odds, using a tool for locating falling odds will optimise your search and speed up the search for the desired data. And as we have already realised, in a strategy with dropping odds speed is a vital factor.

Key factors to consider:

Being registered with several online bookmakers, with a minimum of 5 to diversify your options.

The choice of bookmakers to bet on, bookmakers that are favourable to professional punters tend to keep their odds high and constant. Bookmakers more geared towards the casual punter will be more likely to lower the odds.

When you discover a factor that will affect the odds, such as an injury, be quick to place your bet, before the bookies update the figures.

If the odds drop is not caused by any apparent reason, the sensible thing to do is back the more profitable selection.

Keep an eye on the movement of odds between bookmakers, if they change at more than 70% of bookmakers it is what we call a global movement.

The 15% rule. This is usually the minimum threshold of change in the percentage drop. If the odds movement is higher it will attract the attention of more experienced players.

Dropping odds in the Asian market

Asian bookmakers typically offer higher ceilings to their punters, and this can be something you can use to your advantage when dropping 1×2 odds, as the rapid drop in odds is something that is quite common.

The interesting thing here is to identify the games where Asian bookmakers push the lines down. If you are quick you can locate the odds before they fall. You should concentrate your efforts on differences of more than 2.5% (a fall from 2.00 to 1.90 for example). This is a simple strategy to use, never forgetting that the bookies are always looking to balance the payouts for the various possible outcomes.

If the odds change inconsistently look for bookmakers that have been slower to react to the market and profit from using the falling odds.

Tools for Tracking Dropping Odds

Several platforms already offer automated tools that quickly help you track falling odds on a particular outcome and help you place your bet before bookies make predictable adjustments.

These tools take into account various fluctuations in the odds at various bookmakers and show you which bookmaker has not yet followed the downward trend and where your winning bet will generate the most winnings.

Analyse the markets available for the specific sport or game you wish to bet on and analyse in which markets the drop in odds is most promising. A drop to 2/1 on the winning odds on a certain team that was at 4/1 is an example of an odds that you should take advantage of quickly to increase your ROI.

The odds drop should be used as a complement to your usual gambling strategy, as placing higher value bets does not mean that the winning bet odds are higher, only that the probability of generating a positive ROI over time increases.

By using these tools you can use the trends in odds movement to your advantage and increase the chance of generating a profit on your bet.